Quantum Computing Cost to Break Encryption Drops 20x as CEOs Face New Cybersecurity Threat

Quick Facts

• Quantum computing resources needed to break encryption dropped from 20 million qubits to under 1 million through algorithmic improvements
• Three research papers in 12 months have sharply reduced estimated quantum resources needed, marking biggest shift since 1994
• Global businesses average only 25 out of 100 on quantum-safe readiness scores, with 90% lacking migration roadmaps

Quantum computing technology has become dramatically cheaper and more efficient at breaking encryption, with new research showing a 20-fold reduction in the hardware resources needed to crack widely-used security systems.

Google researchers demonstrated that breaking Bitcoin and Ethereum encryption now requires fewer than 1,200 logical qubits and around 500,000 physical qubits, down from roughly 10 million previously estimated. The breakthrough comes entirely from algorithmic and architectural improvements, not hardware advances.

“It’s not just about hardware when it comes to improving quantum computing. Advances in algorithms also have a huge impact—in this case, we got a 20x speedup,” said Michael Murphy, CTO at Arquit.

Three research papers published in fewer than 12 months have sharply reduced estimated quantum resource requirements. Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic research suggests a system with around 26,000 qubits could break ECC-256 encryption in about 10 days. Scientists calculated that elliptic curve cryptography could be defeated with 9,988 qubits, though it would take 1,000 days to crack.

The developments represent the most significant shift in quantum threat assessment since Peter Shor published his factoring algorithm in 1994. Investment in quantum computing jumped from $2 billion in 2024 to $13 billion in 2025.

Business readiness remains critically low. IBM’s 2025 quantum-safe readiness report shows the global average readiness score is only 25 on a 100-point scale. Research from Trusted Group Computing found over 90% of global businesses lack roadmaps for quantum cybersecurity threats.

“Pretty much anything that says a person is who they say they are is underpinned by encryption. Some of the most sensitive and valuable infrastructure that we have would be open to somebody coming in and pretending to be the rightful owner,” said computer scientist Deborah Frincke from Sandia National Laboratories.

Security experts warn of “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks where adversaries collect encrypted data today to decrypt when quantum capabilities mature. Financial services face risks to transaction integrity, while healthcare sectors must protect patient data and decades-long R&D assets.

The federal government has mandated all agencies complete post-quantum migration by 2035, with an estimated cost of $7.1 billion. Gartner predicts 20% of organizations will dedicate fixed budgets to quantum threats by 2026.

Enterprise migration typically takes three to four years from awareness to structured approach, with complete cryptographic inventory alone requiring major program investment. Companies moving quantum use cases from R&D to business units average six to nine months for implementation.

Read more: Encryption breaking technology is now 20x cheaper and CEOs should be very worried