Quick Facts

  • Samsung forecasts Q1 2026 operating profit of 57.2 trillion won ($37.9 billion), up more than 8x from the same quarter last year
  • Memory chip prices are rising 40-50% quarterly due to AI infrastructure demand consuming 70% of global production
  • Samsung has already sold out its entire 2026 HBM4 memory chip production capacity

Samsung Electronics forecast a first-quarter operating profit of 57.2 trillion won ($37.9 billion), crushing analyst estimates of 40.6 trillion won. The figure represents more than an eightfold increase from the 6.69 trillion won profit recorded in the same quarter last year.

The world’s largest memory chip supplier also expects total sales of 133 trillion won ($88.3 billion) for the first quarter, well above consensus estimates of 116.8 trillion won. The profit forecast triples Samsung’s previous record of 20 trillion won set just three months earlier.

AI Demand Drives Memory Shortage

The profit surge stems from a severe memory chip shortage driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure demands. Data centers now consume an estimated 70% of all memory chips produced worldwide.

“We expect a favorable business environment due to the increasing demand for AI and the resulting continued shortage of memory supply,” said Jun Young-hyun, Samsung’s vice chairman and co-CEO overseeing the chip business.

TrendForce expects dynamic random-access memory chip prices to rise more than 50% in the current quarter. Counterpoint Research called current market conditions a “Hyper-Bull” phase that eclipses the historic 2018 peak.

Record HBM4 Sales

Samsung has begun shipping its 6th-generation high-bandwidth memory, HBM4, to key customers. The company has already sold out its entire 2026 HBM4 production capacity, according to Korea Economic Daily.

Analysts estimate Samsung’s chip division accounts for roughly 54 trillion won, or 95% of total operating profit. Several brokerages now forecast the company’s full-year 2026 operating profit could exceed 100 trillion won if memory prices remain firm.

Industry-Wide Impact

The memory shortage is affecting consumer markets. PC vendors including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS have warned of 15-20% price increases. IDC projects the global smartphone market will shrink by 12.9% in 2026, the sharpest drop on record.

McKinsey projects $7 trillion in data center spending through 2030, with $5.2 trillion focused on AI infrastructure. Analysts don’t expect normal pricing to return before 2027 as demand continues to outpace supply.

“The memory market has entered a ‘Hyper-Bull’ phase, with current conditions eclipsing the historic 2018 peak,” Counterpoint Research said in a report. The firm estimates memory prices surged 40-50% in the final quarter of 2025.

Read more: Samsung forecasts insane operating profit growth thanks to surging memory prices

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