RAM Shortage Could Last Until 2028 as AI Demand Reshapes Memory Markets

Quick Facts

• DRAM prices rose 172% in 2025, with DDR4 prices jumping 1,360% since April 2025
• Up to 70% of global memory production in 2026 will go to data centers for AI infrastructure
• New fabrication facilities won’t provide meaningful output until 2028, extending the shortage for years

The global memory shortage that began in 2024 shows no signs of ending soon. Industry executives warn the crisis could persist until 2028 as artificial intelligence infrastructure demands reshape the entire memory market.

DRAM prices have skyrocketed 172% throughout 2025, with conventional DRAM contract prices forecast to rise 55-60% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. DDR4 prices have jumped 1,360% since April 2025, while DDR5 spot prices have quadrupled since September 2025.

The shortage stems from manufacturers reallocating production capacity to high-margin HBM memory for AI applications. Up to 70% of memory produced worldwide in 2026 will be consumed by data centers. OpenAI’s Stargate initiative alone would consume up to 40% of global DRAM output.

“There’s no relief until 2028,” Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated. Dell COO Jeffrey Clarke warned during a November 2025 analyst call that the company had “never witnessed costs escalating at the current pace.”

Memory costs now account for 35% of PC build materials, up from 15-18% the previous quarter. Major PC manufacturers including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS have warned clients of 15-20% price increases ahead.

The impact extends beyond pricing. Trendforce updated its PC market forecast from 1.7% year-over-year growth to a 2.6% decline for 2026. Gartner and IDC expect the worldwide PC market to decline 10-11% and smartphone market to fall 8-9% in 2026.

Building new DRAM fabrication facilities requires 2-3 year construction timelines and $10-20 billion capital investments. Micron has confirmed its new memory fabs won’t have “meaningful output” until 2028.

The shortage represents more than a cyclical supply-demand mismatch. It marks a permanent strategic reallocation of silicon wafer capacity toward AI infrastructure, fundamentally altering the memory market structure.

DRAM manufacturers need to increase annual production by 12% between 2026 and 2027 to address demand, but current production is only increasing 7.5%. Memory makers are meeting about 60% of demand through 2027.

Apple has weathered the crisis better than competitors by securing long-term supply agreements through Q1 2026. Companies with thin margins, including TCL, Xiaomi, and Oppo, face the most pressure from the shortage.

Read more: The RAM shortage could last years