OpenAI Revenue Is $20 Billion Less Than Reported, Rattling AI Stocks and IPO Plans

Quick Facts

• OpenAI told prospective investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, roughly $20 billion below prior media reports.
• The Nasdaq fell 1.25% on October 8, its worst single-day drop since mid-August, with Nvidia down 3% and Oracle and Intel each falling 6%.
• At $50 billion, OpenAI's annualized revenue falls below rival Anthropic's $65 billion annualized sales figure.

A Financial Times report published October 8 sent technology stocks sliding after revealing that OpenAI Group PBC told prospective investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September. That figure is roughly $20 billion below the $68 to $70 billion that had been widely reported just two months earlier.

The gap does not mean OpenAI lost $20 billion in sales. The earlier figure included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners, according to an anonymous source, to enable a direct comparison with Anthropic's reported numbers. The newer figure reflects net revenue, where OpenAI books only its share of certain partner sales rather than the full transaction value. Both accounting approaches comply with U.S. standards.

Anthropic books the full value of sales made through cloud partners as revenue and records the partner's cut as an expense. OpenAI records only its cut. The difference turns on which company controls the customer relationship and delivers the product.

The confusion about the $70 billion figure stemmed from a calculation error by investors. When OpenAI told investors its revenue had grown 70%, some took an initial estimate of $40 billion in August sales and applied that growth rate, arriving at roughly $70 billion. That math was wrong.

OpenAI did report strong growth metrics alongside the revised figure. The company cited 77% growth in its annual revenue run rate during the third quarter and 107% growth in the run rate for its enterprise business.

Despite those numbers, the revised headline figure hit markets hard. The Nasdaq fell 1.25%, its worst single-day performance since mid-August. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5%. Nvidia shares fell 3%. Oracle and Intel each lost 6%. The Nasdaq 100 declined 1.4% on the day before some names, including Oracle and CoreWeave, edged higher in overnight trading.

Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, warned that any weakness in the AI growth story has cascading consequences. "There are going to be tremors throughout all of the related sub-industries," he said. "This has become a much narrower market that's dependent on the AI names to keep it afloat."

Not all analysts saw cause for alarm. Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC he was not concerned. "I am not concerned about OpenAI just tripling its revenue this year," Luria said. "They have actually had an acceleration in growth this quarter and are catching up to Anthropic in the enterprise business. These two companies combined are at around $120 billion of revenue run rate from nearly zero two years ago."

Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives acknowledged that any negative signal will make investors nervous but said the environment still creates buying opportunities and that now is "not the time to be skittish."

The revenue revision lands at a sensitive moment for OpenAI's IPO plans. The company confidentially submitted its S-1 on June 8, 2026, but has not announced an official listing date. CEO Sam Altman has indicated a public offering will wait until at least 2027, with the company reportedly considering another private funding round first.

OpenAI's own internal projections show cumulative cash burn through 2030 reaching $218 billion. HSBC has estimated the company will need to raise at least $207 billion by 2030 to continue operating at its planned spending rate. Booked 2026 revenue tells a slower story: $6.7 billion in Q2, up 18% from Q1, against a $12.3 billion operating loss.

For software and technology company leaders watching the AI market, the episode highlights how quickly revenue narratives can shift when accounting definitions differ between competitors. The $20 billion discrepancy was not a business collapse. It was a comparison problem. But in a market priced for perfection, the distinction barely mattered on October 8.

Read more: AI stocks crumble on report that OpenAI's annualized revenue is much lower than believed